The "full-time children" detail isn't that surprising, with Gen Z riding on the boom generation's savings in the most literal possible way and the government having every incentive to not call it what it is. Reminds me of the laying flat 躺平 trend in China.
I'm glad you closed with the Carl Benedikt Frey quote too. "The short run can be a lifetime" makes the optimist case feel incomplete every time.
Appreciate the expansion pack! Exciting to see your path and your growth as a writer.
I´m a college student in Chile, a country that also underwent mass college enrollment in the 2000s. Not sure what AI means for young people in middle income countries.
As important income is, I also worry about the loss of meaning jobs provide. They provide social legibility, a way to feel useful as an adult.
Hannah Arendt wrote about the active and contemplative life. Maybe we need a new category?
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What will the kind of people who used to go to software engineering do? What did these types of people do before white collar jobs? Academia?
Great piece as always ! It was also fascinating to hear some of your thoughts on the China trip. My own impression from my last China trip in 2024 was that joblessness among college graduates was already a large topic though the AI component was missing. Many people I know at that age had considerably lower expectations or pivoted way (one from physics to accounting). The anxiety and fear around jobs permeated many conversations.
I agree with your point on tools and some of the other points, but am quite sceptical of the UBI idea. My impression is that some amount of distortion of AI companies objectives (through a form of tax) might be necessary. When it comes to the distribution it matters a lot how permanently the economy is changed. If retraining is for example not an option for many anymore it would be more like a permanent subsidy, which needs to be financed differently. Anyway despite your critical view of econ, I think you'd make an excellent economist 😅
I think the U.S. income tax system will need to evolve if fewer human workers are needed in future - some kind of token tax? Ideally, then a rapid population decrease due to low birth rates in developed countries won‘t be as socially disruptive as feared. One problem I fear is that worldwide technology advancement will be very uneven; not every country will progress as rapidly as China. Much of Africa and even India don’t yet have reliable infrastructure, and many regions lack political stability and consistent rule of law. AI may thus end up increasing the disparity between the developed and the developing world, and immigrants from left-behind regions will be even less welcome than now if their labor is not wanted at any price.
The "full-time children" detail isn't that surprising, with Gen Z riding on the boom generation's savings in the most literal possible way and the government having every incentive to not call it what it is. Reminds me of the laying flat 躺平 trend in China.
I'm glad you closed with the Carl Benedikt Frey quote too. "The short run can be a lifetime" makes the optimist case feel incomplete every time.
Great piece as always.
Appreciate the expansion pack! Exciting to see your path and your growth as a writer.
I´m a college student in Chile, a country that also underwent mass college enrollment in the 2000s. Not sure what AI means for young people in middle income countries.
As important income is, I also worry about the loss of meaning jobs provide. They provide social legibility, a way to feel useful as an adult.
Hannah Arendt wrote about the active and contemplative life. Maybe we need a new category?
+
What will the kind of people who used to go to software engineering do? What did these types of people do before white collar jobs? Academia?
Great piece as always ! It was also fascinating to hear some of your thoughts on the China trip. My own impression from my last China trip in 2024 was that joblessness among college graduates was already a large topic though the AI component was missing. Many people I know at that age had considerably lower expectations or pivoted way (one from physics to accounting). The anxiety and fear around jobs permeated many conversations.
I agree with your point on tools and some of the other points, but am quite sceptical of the UBI idea. My impression is that some amount of distortion of AI companies objectives (through a form of tax) might be necessary. When it comes to the distribution it matters a lot how permanently the economy is changed. If retraining is for example not an option for many anymore it would be more like a permanent subsidy, which needs to be financed differently. Anyway despite your critical view of econ, I think you'd make an excellent economist 😅
I think the U.S. income tax system will need to evolve if fewer human workers are needed in future - some kind of token tax? Ideally, then a rapid population decrease due to low birth rates in developed countries won‘t be as socially disruptive as feared. One problem I fear is that worldwide technology advancement will be very uneven; not every country will progress as rapidly as China. Much of Africa and even India don’t yet have reliable infrastructure, and many regions lack political stability and consistent rule of law. AI may thus end up increasing the disparity between the developed and the developing world, and immigrants from left-behind regions will be even less welcome than now if their labor is not wanted at any price.
Maybe can interview people unemployed for months to year via more and more Rednotes public builder -> OPC Community Event